Poisson Betting - September Update

Just a quick update to how the Poisson betting is going (Slightly more delayed than I would have liked – these results are to the end of September)

There has now been a total of 1,569 games to bet on and a total of 23,708 different bets.

The total which my sheet has predicted correctly has held pretty steady, increasing by 0.92% to 65.38%

The top 3 Leagues for results being predicted correctly are Scottish Premier League, French Ligue 1 and Serie A– all with over 70% of bets correct.

The lowest 4 are the English Premier League, League One and League Two along with Serie B – all are around 61%

The 2 Leagues that have shown the highest increase are Spanish La Liga and the English Conference – both increased by around 5%

The largest drop was the Portuguese Liga which dropped by 6.5% - no other league decreased by more than 2%

Table below showing some of these results.

Couple of things I’m working on to improve the usability of my sheets in the short term:-

• Coding some of the macros so they run faster
• Instead of having to choose the individual teams each time I’m working on a fixture list which would run all the macros with 1 button click
• Working on tightening up the ratios when teams have been promoted and relegated – I’m preparing another blog post on this
• Looking at areas where teams are predicted to win with better odds than the bookies are offering

I received a couple of comments last time I posted an update – if you have any advice or feedback on how I can improve these, whether you are doing something similar or just noticed something I may have missed please feel free to comment and I’ll respond when I get chance!

Video Analysis - Iago Aspas

While the football season has mainly ended for the major leagues around Europe, I’ve decided to spend some time getting up to speed on the major analysis platforms used. I’ve used many of these before (Prozone, Sportscode, NACSport, Dartfish etc) but there are more and more coming onto the market (such as S20APP).

 

The first one I decided to look at is LongoMatch. This is a free piece of tagging software available for Mac & PC and while it is stripped down compared to a lot of more comprehensive models I have to say it’s excellent for the job it does. You can set teams, key indicators and you have up to 16 customisable tags which you can then mark against teams, players and time. It’s easy to use and although when I’ve used it previously it had a few teething problems (such as when you did something out of the order it expected the system would crash and you’d lose everything since your last save) that seems to have been fixed now and I didn’t come across any problems.

 

 

 

So the example I used, while only loosely what I would call analysis focussed on Iago Aspas, Liverpool’s new £7m signing from Celta Vigo (although this hasn't yet been completed it's expected to be in the next few days). I already had a game downloaded (Celta Vigo vs. Athletic Bilbao from 03/05/13) and setting the key indicators to match the key Statszone indicators from the iPhone app. Once I had gone through the game and tagged the relevant points it is easy to pull whichever ones you need to into a playlist and export this into an mp4 file. I then used iMovie to cut this into a presentation using some of the graphics from the Statszone app (this can be done in LongoMatch – I just found this easier to do in iMovie, just personal preference)

 

Just to clarify, I’d consider this to be the very tip of analysis, it’s only 1 game and anybody can look good in isolation and although the graphics help with some context it is pretty standalone. With more games however, LongoMatch can be used to build up a library which allows for much more comprehensive video analysis over a season.