Showing posts with label All Things Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label All Things Football. Show all posts

Thursday, 17 October 2013

Poisson Betting - September Update


Just a quick update to how the Poisson betting is going (Slightly more delayed than I would have liked – these results are to the end of September)

There has now been a total of 1,569 games to bet on and a total of 23,708 different bets.

The total which my sheet has predicted correctly has held pretty steady, increasing by 0.92% to 65.38%

The top 3 Leagues for results being predicted correctly are Scottish Premier League, French Ligue 1 and Serie A– all with over 70% of bets correct.

The lowest 4 are the English Premier League, League One and League Two along with Serie B – all are around 61%

The 2 Leagues that have shown the highest increase are Spanish La Liga and the English Conference – both increased by around 5%

The largest drop was the Portuguese Liga which dropped by 6.5% - no other league decreased by more than 2%

Table below showing some of these results.



Couple of things I’m working on to improve the usability of my sheets in the short term:-

  • Coding some of the macros so they run faster
  • Instead of having to choose the individual teams each time I’m working on a fixture list which would run all the macros with 1 button click
  • Working on tightening up the ratios when teams have been promoted and relegated – I’m preparing another blog post on this
  • Looking at areas where teams are predicted to win with better odds than the bookies are offering


I received a couple of comments last time I posted an update – if you have any advice or feedback on how I can improve these, whether you are doing something similar or just noticed something I may have missed please feel free to comment and I’ll respond when I get chance!

Wednesday, 7 August 2013

Football League - The Gap in Points


Mind the Gap




While the final day in the Premier League didn’t carry the same drama as previous seasons with most issues wrapped up long before the end of May, the same cannot be levelled at the Football League. Whether it was the drama at Vicarage Road/KC Stadium that saw Watford fall at the final hurdle, the amazing scenes as Brentford missed a penalty and Doncaster raced away to score a last minute winner or Barnet’s heartbreak at being relegated after a string of results went against them.

The main point I wanted to look at was the unbelievably high number of points needed to survive in the Championship, indeed with only a handful of games of the season left some teams were within touching distance from both the play offs and the relegation zone.

Peterborough ended up being relegated with a record number of points from the 2ndtier since the switch to 3 points for a win and this was only confirmed on the final minute of the final day of the season. Given this I decided to take a look at how the number of points in various positions compared with previous seasons.

The graphs below would look much better in Tableu – unfortunately I have a Mac so they are done in Excel!



The following graph shows the points achieved for each position of significance along with the average needed for the last 15 seasons.

Difference in Points for the Championship (click to enlarge)


Points to note
  • The gap between the final Play-off position and the final relegation place was the smallest it has been in the data I have gathered – just 14 points between 6th and 22nd
  • Bristol City finished well adrift of safety, actually joint 5th highest in the data gathered. However they got the 2nd highest points for a bottom placed team – and would have actually stayed up the previous season.
  • Cardiff City finished top with the 2nd lowest amount of points needed to win the Championship. However, they were close to the average number of points between top and 6th (the last play-off spot). This was because the last play-off spot was the lowest in the recorded data – 6 points below the average needed.
  • The information means the division was very even last season, the teams at the top didn’t run away with it and the teams at the bottom were not adrift. The topsy turvy nature is perhaps best highlighted by Peterborough United (who finished 22nd) doing the double over Cardiff City (who finished top)
  • The average number of points needed for the last play-off spot is very consistent over the last 15 years. 12 of the 15 teams finishing 6th had a total of between 73 & 76 points
  • 2007/08 and 2012/13 were both very close in terms of the number of points between the last relegated team and the last team making the play offs, with 2007/08 being the year with the least number of points between top and bottom (43)






Difference in Points for League One (Click to Enlarge)

  • Doncaster Rovers, who finished top in 2012/13, achieved less points than the average number needed to get automatic promotion. Only once has there been a tighter division for the gap between top and bottom than the 52 points in 2012/13 (an unbelievable 35 points in 2005/06)
  • In 2010/11 and 2011/12 the gap between bottom and safety was extremely tight just 5 and 6 points respectively separated the teams.
  • The last relegation spot is very consistent, for 10 of the last 11 seasons it has been within 3 points of the average of 48 points.




Difference in Points for League Two (Click to Enlarge)

  •  The average for the Top spot is lower than the other 2 divisions (89 in League Two, 94 in Championship & League One)
  • Again all 3 promotion spots (top, automatic, play offs) was lower than the average needed meaning it was much more equal throughout the division
  • Barnet can consider themselves very unlucky to have been relegated with the highest number of points from the data (2nd relegation place was only introduced in 2002/03)
  • Aldershot achieved 48 points which is a higher total than the average normally to survive (44 points) and was the joint highest amount for a team that finished bottom.
  • The gap between the play offs and relegation was much smaller than normal (18 points compared to the average of 28) with only 1 season having a tighter margin (2005/06)



Conclusions

  • 2012/13 was much tighter across all 3 divisions than normal, the promoted teams scored less points and the relegated teams more points than usual.
  • 2012/13 had the highest number of points needed to survive in the Championship and League Two for any of the 15 years I have data for.
  • 2012/13 had the lowest number of points needed to gain automatic promotion from Championship and League Two and the third lowest from League One
  • The data indicates that 2012/13 was a one off and not a continuation of a sloping trend towards tighter divisions. There is no expectation that 2013/14 will be just as tight
  • There is some correlation between divisions being tight at the same time. For example 2012/13 was in the top 3 of the 15 seasons in terms of the number of points between top and bottom in all 3 divisions. 2010/11 was in the top 5.
  • 6 of the last 7 seasons in the Championship had been the closest between top and bottom in the data set. At least at this level the gap has narrowed considerably.





Tuesday, 2 July 2013

Do Goalkeepers Raise Their Game Against Big Clubs


Goalkeepers are traditionally very hard to analyse. There are understandably less statistics produced due to goalkeepers generally having less actions during a game, although the modern day goalkeeper needs to have added excellent distribution to his repertoire to effectively play as a sweeper. The limitations of the available statistics is probably for another post but the obvious one is whether a shot should be expected to be saved. Paul on his Different Game blog has already explored some excellent work on goalkeepers

Joe Hart was in unbelievable form during Manchester City's title winning season



From a throwaway line I heard on Match of the Day some time ago, I decided to investigate the impact playing against better teams had on keepers. In essence are performances like John Ruddy away at Liverpool for Norwich in securing a point reflective of their performance over the season or are they “one offs”.

Using the MCFC analytics data, which is now unfortunately a season out of date (here’s hoping they continue to release updates on a better than annual basis although the project does seem to have died a death) we have access to a full seasons worth of data using statistics provided by Opta. By working out how many shots each team face on average we can see whether the % they save is higher or lower against the ‘big 6’ (in this case I have used Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs & Liverpool – sorry Everton fans!!)

In all 44 Goalkeepers played during the 2011/12 season for the 20 Premier League Teams and the first thing I looked at was how shots & goals affected the final league position.

It’s clear from the graph below there is a reasonable correlation between the number of shots faced and where teams finished (R Square is 0.6484). It’s common sense that the more shots teams have at you EVENTUALLY one is likely to go in, so conceding less shots initially should result in conceding less goals. Using Shots Conceded is effectively half of the Total Shots Ratio Model in reverse as with that model the percentage which you outshoot your opponent has a high relationship with finishing position – it means that if you concede less shots you are much more likely to be able to outshoot your opponent and ultimately finish higher.

Graph showing total shots faced vs final league position for 2011/12


The second graphic shows the number of goals actually conceded and is an even better fit, with an R Square of 0.7027. There are some outliers here (Sunderland conceded as many goals as Arsenal but there were 10 places between them – it’s OK not conceding many but you do actually have to shoot and score sometimes!)

Graph showing total goals conceded vs final league position for 2011/12

So knowing this I go back to my original point and whether some goalkeepers are able to raise their game against the big boys.

I chose a cut off of 1350 minutes (15 games) to look at, which gave me 22 goalkeepers. The gap between Thomas Sorenson (1350 minutes played) and the next 3 keepers in total minutes (3 at 720 minutes) was reasonably large anyway and a good place to cut.

First to look at is the total number of shots on target (excluding penalties) each goalkeeper faced. We can see from the simple table below which keepers immediately stand out.



Minutes per shot on Target

Minutes per Goal Conceded


Minutes per Goal conceded vs Minutes per Shot Faced


Immediately Joe Hart stands out as much better than the rest (remember, this is 2011/12 data so his dip in form last season is not taken into account) whereas at the other end Adam Bogdan and Jussi Jääskeläinen are both in the bottom 4 keepers in terms of the lowest number of minutes per goal conceded. This goes some way to explaining why Bolton were relegated.

So where it was taking just 2.5 shots on target to beat Paul Robinson it was taking twice this many to score past David de Gea. Not bad for a keeper who supposedly had a poor first season!


David de Gea is now proving to be the top class Goalkeeper he was signed to be


I’ve now compared the figures against the previously mentioned big 6 against the other teams. For this I have removed Sorenson, Jaaskelainen, Begovic and Bogdan due to them not playing enough games against the better teams. I set a minimum of playing at least 2/3rds of each of the games against the big 6 and the other 13 to give a reasonable representation.

Minutes per shot faced - Big 6 vs Other 13


In all cases the big 6 shot on target more frequently than the other 13. This was pretty much to be expected as you would expect the better teams to produce goal scoring opportunities more frequently than lesser teams.

Shots per goal conceded - Bg 6 vs Other 13


This is where it gets interesting, there is no clear distinction showing keepers raising their game against better teams. Michel Vorm, Simon Mignolet and Mark Schwarzer all have excellent records against the big 6 and along with Paddy Kenny all actually conceded less goals per minute against the better teams than the others in the league.

Joe Hart is also in there, and although his record is good in both cases it’s better against the better teams, maybe a lack of concentration in the less important games due to being so well protected?

David de Gea and Brad Friedel come off worst, de Gea’s phenomenal numbers against the other 13 teams (Man Utd always seem to have an exceptional record against teams lower down the table) was always likely to drop against the better teams, but it remains as one of the better ones in the league. Brad Friedel shows a big drop and maybe the 5-1 home hammering Tottenham took by Man City (remember Dzeko’s 4 goals??) from only 9 shots on target skews the data and shows the fragility of how one result can affect this.

Unfortunately these statistics only show the tip of the iceberg. Is there a reason for keepers performing better against better teams? They are likely to have more defenders in the box making the shooting opportunity not as clear, maybe they take shots from further out. All this is speculation and until further detailed information is available speculation is all we have.

Another goal flying in past Paul Robinson

Tuesday, 16 April 2013

Unpaid Internships in Performance Analysis: My View

A lot has been said recently about Performance Analysis internships within football. Reading advertising a year long, full time, unpaid internship sparked a debate which was even picked up by the Independent and various fair trade organisations.

I have commented previously on my experiences with internships (as one myself I feel in a good position to comment but my experiences won’t be the same as everybody’s)

The furore kicked up seems to chiefly criticise Reading but anybody who has finished University or has a background in performance and has tried to get a job within football knows full well the difficulties in getting a paid job, especially in an emerging field such as Performance Analysis

I had planned to do this post closer to the summer when I knew the internship opportunities would start rolling around again but many clubs seem more organised for next year and are advertising posts for the 2013/14 season early!!

Analysis of Advertised Jobs

For the past 18 Months for my own benefit I’ve been keeping a log of all performance analysis jobs advertised across a variety of sites. These are all jobs both paid and unpaid and was initially so I could keep track of which ones to apply for but it became evident that a lot of the jobs were unpaid that were advertised.

Now, football is a secretive business that most people will never know the insides of. Many jobs, even at Performance Analysis level are “headhunted” and therefore never advertised, so it may be a little one sided but most people WON’T already have a job and will look extensively on the websites to see what is available

The graphic below shows the breakdown of jobs that have been advertised over the past 18 months, broken down by the stated remuneration.











So, it’s not a recent thing that almost all advertised performance analysis jobs come with very little expectation of an initial salary. It’s great that this argument is seeing the light of day but to haul Reading in particular over the coals is a little unfair on them.

The graph attached does show that the majority of paid jobs come from Premier League clubs. This is along with the presumed expectation that more jobs are headhunted behind the scenes by Premier League clubs, while not fully exonerating offering unpaid internships, means at least they are trying. The problem actually comes lower down the leagues, where there is less money, but more unpaid positions. Does a lack of money in the budget excuse a club hiring somebody unpaid? If you can’t afford a commodity then surely you don’t buy it, getting it for free isn’t really an ethical way to do it.


All the above just covers the jobs advertised within Performance Analysis, I have to say I also see a lot of jobs within the other Sports Science disciplines which are advertised as internships just as much, particularly Strength & Conditioning ones. I don’t record these as it’s not an area I’m interested in but I’m sure there are plenty advertised which are unpaid across the various divisions. There also seems to be a difference in pay between the salaried Sports Science jobs and Performance Analysis jobs, but that’s probably another issue entirely!!

Another point to mention in all this is that a lot of clubs have links with universities for placement students and instead of offering internships do things that way. There’s still a debate about this, while it’s great that students are getting exposure and see the actual workings of a club, they are still essentially working for free. I did a sandwich course at university (albeit in business) but I got paid for my year out, learning my trade whilst also contributing to the running of the business. Should football be any different?

Positives & Negatives

Of course, even if the internships are unpaid there are positives and negatives. I’ve evaluated some below.

Positives

In the right situations the learning experience is something you wouldn’t get in any other circumstances. The chance to learn from paid professionals acting as a mentor is unrivalled and you can be exposed to situations that you can’t be prepared for in a classroom.

Of course this is only the case if you are learning and not either just doing a job and they aren’t paying you (in which case it shouldn’t be classed as an internship it should be a voluntary post) or if there is nobody able to teach you any additional skills.

Second point is, if football clubs didn’t advertise internships would there be an opportunity at all for performance analysis within the professional game? Who knows the answer to the one but football is historically resistant to change and if they would be forced to pay somebody would they be able to squeeze it from the budget.

The third point is the chance to showcase your abilities and have a chance of being taken on permanently. Many clubs use the Internships as a “proving ground” (notably Blackburn and West Brom but I’m sure it’s the case in many clubs) the problem comes when at the end of the internship no paid job is available and the club then puts out another advert for another intern. If the post is basically a work trial then at least it has some benefits.

Negatives

Obviously the lack of pay for a full year will put off most people. The full time posts (such as the one’s recently advertised by Reading & Huddersfield Town) even restrict you from taking on a second job to at least make some money to live off. This makes a lot of internships elitist in that only those who can be financially supported or have a lot of savings (something most post grad students won’t have). On a personal level I work a full time job and a casual job and do my part time internship in addition to these, regularly working up to 60 hours per week. I would in no way be in a position to leave my paid job to do it unpaid.

By not paying for somebody to do a role, the club is restricting the potential skill base from which they are employing somebody. The best analyst in the country may not be able to prove it as he can’t take on an unpaid job.

While there are obvious exceptions, from the feel I get from the community it seems that the internships don’t often lead to paid jobs and the drop off from people who leave university then do an internship but then follow a different career path due to lack of jobs is very high. I have no foundation to back this up, this is just general feeling from the connections I have made. It is true that you regularly see the same internships offered each season so it makes sense that whoever was previously been doing the job hasn’t been taken on.

While the learning element has been discussed in the positives, there are many occasions when internships just seem to be used to do the jobs that either the analyst doesn’t want to do or are seen as basic. In my opinion just tagging clips in SportsCode does NOT make you an analyst and I don’t think you need a university degree to do this! Football clubs as still resistant to genuine analytics as has recently been discussed at the Sloan Sports Conference (again, there are exceptions) but it is incredibly hard for an intern to get their ideas across and make a genuine difference rather than just doing what they’ve been told to do.

The criteria & demands on many interns are massive. Almost all jobs ask for at least a Degree (in fact 4 of the 55 unpaid jobs asked for a Masters, including unbelievably a non-league team!!) and the expected return from the club such as unsociable and long hours don’t measure up against the rewards in most cases.

Other Points to Note

When the EPPP was launched the rumour was that it would cause a “boom” in the number of performance analysis jobs. While it is good that the Premier League sees the value in performance analysis there is a get out clause in the criteria within the rules







93. Each Club which operates a Category 1 Academy shall employ a minimum of two Full Time Performance Analysts.
94. Each Club which operates a Category 2 Academy shall employ a minimum of two Performance Analysts, one on a Full Time basis, and the other at least Part Time.


Nowhere does it say they need to be paid, so do the EPPP rules encourage employing performance analysts or internships? As yet this expected boom doesn’t seem to have materialised (although a lot of clubs are still waiting for their grading)

Although the Premier League clubs have shown to employ more paid employees than the other divisions, the argument still remains that if the Premier League clubs, with all the money they have coming in, are happy to take on unpaid interns then why should clubs lower down the league ladder, who have much less available budget to spend on areas they still see as non-essential?
The main bone of contention with the recent Reading internship was that it was full time. The argument then stretches that should a part time intern be paid? The difference being that if you work part-time you could quite reasonably have another part-time job to earn some money which you could live on. While this is a reasonable assumption it still doesn’t excuse the fact that you are basically doing a job unpaid for a year (or more in many cases). Do football clubs look at CV’s and think – this guys worked full time plus done 2 other jobs, he’s obviously a hard worker. From the people I’ve spoken to within the game when clubs interview they are only interested in what you can do, not what you’ve done.

An option may be to cap the length of the internship. If somebody does a job for say 3 months unpaid, surely they’ve learnt a hell of a lot in that time? Should they then either be paid or have the skills to get a job elsewhere? The problem with this is that most clubs want consistency across a full league season and often don’t have the time to continuously be training interns, but if that is the case should they have interns, who they are supposed to be mentoring in the first place?

Conclusion

The main concern with internships is how is somebody supposed to live with no money for a year. If the opportunity was there for a paid job afterwards at least there would be a carrot to aim towards but often the same clubs advertise for the same internship positions season after season.

There are some clubs who should be commended. Norwich City have taken on several paid positions, as have Brighton & Hove Albion. Sheffield United have advertised for both paid and unpaid roles and the opportunity seems to be there to grow into a role. West Brom, after advertising for an unpaid role last year, have now offered a small salary (below minimum wage but at least it’s something)

In fact the best opportunities for Performance Analysts seem to come from analysis companies rather than clubs. Prozone, Opta, Onside Analysis & Venatrack have all advertised for paid jobs within the last 12 months. The growth in genuine analytics has been massive in the industry but it is the clubs that are resistant to this.

I will leave you with 2 quotes, the first from Paul Fletcher from the BBC’s article about the Reading situation, the second from Reading themselves, in response to the original story in the Independent.  

Fletcher is adamant that the practice of unpaid internships should continue.

"If I had the choice of sending my son to go and work at a Premier League club for free or to stack shelves in a supermarket for 12 months, then I would send him to a Premier League club," he said.

I’m sure this is fine for Mr Fletcher (an ex-professional footballer) who can afford to send his son to work somewhere unpaid for 12 months. The question he should be asking is why should he have to choose? Why should both jobs not be paid? Can the supermarket afford it more than a Premier League football club!?

A Reading FC spokesman said: “Internships are an important part of career progression and experience building for any individual starting out on the path to their dream job.”

The key phrase here is “Dream Job”. Football clubs are acutely aware that people will work for free – because it’s football. It is most people’s dream job, it’s certainly the closest I’ll ever get. Does this mean people should do it unpaid? Not at all and it is purely exploitative of clubs to think that way.

I’m not asking for the earth, I don’t expect to be paid as much as Yaya Toure or Wayne Rooney, but if I’m doing a job that is valued I would at least expect to be paid enough to live on. I want to make a difference and help a team excel and achieve their potential, the sooner clubs realise the talent pool they are missing out on the better.


Comments welcome.



References

The sites I used to gather the information about jobs are below.





Soccer Analysis (http://www.socceranalysis.com/jobs)

The Video Analyst (http://thevideoanalyst.com/)

Tuesday, 26 February 2013

Bradford City vs Swansea City - Match Analysis


Bradford City 0 Swansea City 5 - Carling Cup Final

Swansea: Dyer (16, 47), Michu (40), De Guzman (59 pen, 90)

Headline Stats
 
Bradford City - Swansea City
 
Goals 0 - 5
 
Attempts 3 - 15
 
Attempts On Target 3 - 10
 
Corners 1 - 8

Possession 40% - 60%
 
Stats taken from BBC Sport Website
 
Line Ups

Bradford City                                     Swansea City
12 – Duke (sent off)                         25 - Tremmel
02 – Darby                                        06 - Williams
16 – McHugh                                    22 - Rangel
23 – McArdle                                    33 - Davies (Tiendalli '84)
27 – Good (Davies ’46)                  07 - Britton
11 – Thompson (Hines ’73)            09 - Michu
14 – Atkinson                                   11 - Pablo
18 – Jones                                       12 - Dyer (Lamah '77)
24 – Doyle                                        15 - Routledge
09 – Hanson                                     20 - De Guzman
21 – Wells (McLaughlin ’57)           24 - Ki Sung-Yeung (Monk '62)

Subs                                                        Subs
01 – McLaughlin                                      01 - Vorm
05 – Davies                                             16 - Monk
04 – Ravenhill                                          21 - Tiendalli
07 – Reid                                                 26 - Agustien
26 – Turgott                                             14 - Lamah
17 – Connell                                            17 - Shechter
20 – Hines                                               19 - Moore


Why did I choose to analyse this game?


Despite the wealth of sites giving their opinions on various games, I don’t think there are many sites which offer true performance analysis of games (Zonal Marking is one, well worth checking out). I have decided to start doing small match reports on games every couple of weeks, time permitting and thought an interesting game to start with would the League Cup final. Both teams had a fairytale of sorts, League 2 Bradford the first team from the 4th tier to reach the final since 1961/62 and Swansea now in the Premier League and in site of the first major trophy in their 100 year history.

 

Difference Between the Teams

Having seen the previous rounds, and particularly the hype after beating Arsenal and Aston Villa, Swansea will have known that Bradford’s key tactic was the use of Hanson as a target man and to hassle them into giving up possession while playing forward quickly in a direct style. Swansea, renowned for their passing game, were quite a contrast to this and by overloading the midfield were able to comfortably pass the ball around Bradford. The gulf in quality was evident from the start and Swansea were perhaps better prepared by heeding the warnings of what had happened to Arsenal, Aston Villa, Wigan & Watford in earlier rounds.

 

Key tactics from each side

While it might seem obvious that Swansea won so comfortably by being better than Bradford, football is usually not so simple, especially in a one off cup game. The first key to Swansea’s victory was to stop Bradford’s aerial advantage of Hanson. Bradford’s tactic of dropping deep to try and put bodies in between Swansea’s midfield and the goal played into the Welsh teams hands, as the Bradford midfield dropped to a line around 20 yards inside their own half. Given this situation most defences would step up to create a unit around 15 yards behind this (around the half way line) but Swansea’s defence stayed in a position around 10-15 yards deeper than this, inviting Hanson & Wells to play further forward. This succeed in isolating the Bradford front men and any loose knock downs from them were generally picked up by De Guzman or Britton.

 

 

The Extra men in midfield for Swansea also encouraged Rangel and Davies to get further forward as Atkinson and Thompson the Bradford wingers were having to come infield to pick up Routledge, Hernandez and Dyer and with Michu drifting into the hole and making an auxiliary midfielder this gave Swansea what seemed like an overwhelming advantage of numbers. This method allowed Rangel and Dyer to get in round the back of Curtis Good, the Bradford left back several times and create chances by pulling the ball back to the onrushing attacking midfielders.

 

The passing & movement of Swansea allowed them to create triangles and Hernandez coming inside onto his right foot always allowed for an option whilst creating the space for Ben Davies to get wide and cross the ball. Whilst Bradford dealt with most earlier crosses into the box they struggled with the quick interplay of the Swansea midfielders, especially around the edge of their own penalty area.

 

Bradford’s main issue was around being too deep to affect the play and while they had men back in abundance they didn’t press the ball or stay tight enough to their men which made it difficult for them to win the ball back and prevent Swansea attacking. The possession count above taken from the BBC Sport website seems generous in comparison to some sources which put Swansea possession at anywhere between 75% - 93%

 

Focus players


Michu (Swansea City)

Michu’s goal scoring exploits this season have been well noted and he deserves every bit of acclaim that comes his way. While he played just behind a traditional forward in Spain and for most of the season behind Danny Graham, he was given the lone front man role for the final. In contrast to Adel Tarrabt, who was picked up on Saturdays Match of the Day for spending the majority of his time on the halfway line and not affecting the play in the right way, Michu generally stayed around the edge of the area, although always looked to come short to link up with the 3 attacking midfielders.

He noticeably drifted to the left and got a couple of great shots off from this area, prime examples being the shot which led to Dyer’s first goal and his goal, where he created the space and placed the ball excellently into the far corner, striking the ball between the legs of McHugh and using this to unsight the goalkeeper (or if you prefer sky’s version, he was “lucky”)

Michu has been invaluable for Swansea’s style of play, the quick 1-2’s he played with Hernandez, Routledge and Dyer around the edge of the area made it hard for Bradford to stop the tide of attacks for fear of a mistimed tackle but his strength in the air also gave Swansea the option to play crosses into the box as well.

 

 

Nathan Doyle (Bradford City)

Nathan Doyle is both an integral part of Bradford’s midfield unit but also the set pieces taker, throw in taker and seemingly focal point in finding the forward players. From the way Bradford set up on Sunday it seemed that his primary job was to aid the defence and, along with Gary Jones, provide a shield in front of the centre backs which would prevent Swansea’s 5 man midfield getting too much room.

This cautious approach seemed unnatural as I don’t suppose Bradford play this way against too many League 2 teams and this was evident in the first goal. The ball had been played forward but cleared from the edge of their area by Swansea, one ball took out both Bradford midfielders and allowed the ball to move quickly down the pitch with little resistance, ultimately leading to Dyer’s first goal.

By being so deep Doyle was forced to aim hopeful long balls up to Hanson rather than being able to find him effectively and was vastly outnumbered in midfield and must have felt like he was chasing shadows with Swansea swift passing game.

 

 

Was the result fair?

Unfortunately you’d have to say yes. Even the 5-0 scoreline could have been much more. Once Bradford had been reduced to 10 men on the hour for what was, for neutrals at least, a harsh red card for Matt Duke the Bradford goalkeeper Swansea were very comfortable. Bradford possibly showed too much respect for Swansea and would maybe have been better focusing on an “up and at them” style instead of trying to contain a team which many Premier League sides have failed to do. Despite all this Swansea’s tactics were absolutely spot on, testament to Michael Laudrup and his staff

 

Conclusion

Swansea had clearly done their homework on Bradford. They ensured the game was played to their strengths and nullified Bradford’s main threat to run out comfortable winners. Take nothing away from the run Bradford have had but Swansea’s excellent pass and move football, often used as a defensive tactic under Brendan Rodgers has been taken by Laudrup and evolved it into a free flowing attacking style which Bradford couldn’t deal with.