Thursday, 17 October 2013

Poisson Betting - September Update


Just a quick update to how the Poisson betting is going (Slightly more delayed than I would have liked – these results are to the end of September)

There has now been a total of 1,569 games to bet on and a total of 23,708 different bets.

The total which my sheet has predicted correctly has held pretty steady, increasing by 0.92% to 65.38%

The top 3 Leagues for results being predicted correctly are Scottish Premier League, French Ligue 1 and Serie A– all with over 70% of bets correct.

The lowest 4 are the English Premier League, League One and League Two along with Serie B – all are around 61%

The 2 Leagues that have shown the highest increase are Spanish La Liga and the English Conference – both increased by around 5%

The largest drop was the Portuguese Liga which dropped by 6.5% - no other league decreased by more than 2%

Table below showing some of these results.



Couple of things I’m working on to improve the usability of my sheets in the short term:-

  • Coding some of the macros so they run faster
  • Instead of having to choose the individual teams each time I’m working on a fixture list which would run all the macros with 1 button click
  • Working on tightening up the ratios when teams have been promoted and relegated – I’m preparing another blog post on this
  • Looking at areas where teams are predicted to win with better odds than the bookies are offering


I received a couple of comments last time I posted an update – if you have any advice or feedback on how I can improve these, whether you are doing something similar or just noticed something I may have missed please feel free to comment and I’ll respond when I get chance!

2 comments:

  1. Hi Dave!

    Interesting stuff here. The past few months I have been analysing matches with the same goal difference rating system that you mention here on the website. But recently I decided that I should update it. Goal difference gives a good foundation but it is still quite basic. I am trying Bayes' Rule to update the data but I am still trying to figure out what actually would be my new data if my prior probability is the goal rating. Just this weekend I tried home and away records as an update but it gave quite home biased predictions: on Saturday I made predictions on 94 matches with 76 home wins. There were only 32 home wins in reality which means my update was a bit too skewed on the home teams.

    I am thinking of using Poisson along with Bayes (I was researching Poisson and I found your website so there you go)! Just thinking if Poisson could be my new data or should I just have the two running separately without combining them.

    Anyways, I am still newbie in this but I will definitely bookmark your site and follow your posts.

    Cheers,

    Jarno

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Jarno, I am still running my calculations for each round of matches but having trouble finding the time to update my blog due to work! Hoping to get to the end of the season and then do a findings post.

      I actually began to include some element of overall and recent form for teams around October/November and found this strengthened the predictions but it is definitely still a work in progress.

      As with all analytics it's something that will need to continuously be worked on - why not try running 3 lots, 1 as poisson, 1 as hayes and 1 combined to see which gives the best results?

      Obviously that's depending on how much time you have!

      Thanks again
      Dave

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