Thursday, 17 October 2013

Poisson Betting - September Update

Just a quick update to how the Poisson betting is going (Slightly more delayed than I would have liked – these results are to the end of September)

There has now been a total of 1,569 games to bet on and a total of 23,708 different bets.

The total which my sheet has predicted correctly has held pretty steady, increasing by 0.92% to 65.38%

The top 3 Leagues for results being predicted correctly are Scottish Premier League, French Ligue 1 and Serie A– all with over 70% of bets correct.

The lowest 4 are the English Premier League, League One and League Two along with Serie B – all are around 61%

The 2 Leagues that have shown the highest increase are Spanish La Liga and the English Conference – both increased by around 5%

The largest drop was the Portuguese Liga which dropped by 6.5% - no other league decreased by more than 2%

Table below showing some of these results.

Couple of things I’m working on to improve the usability of my sheets in the short term:-

  • Coding some of the macros so they run faster
  • Instead of having to choose the individual teams each time I’m working on a fixture list which would run all the macros with 1 button click
  • Working on tightening up the ratios when teams have been promoted and relegated – I’m preparing another blog post on this
  • Looking at areas where teams are predicted to win with better odds than the bookies are offering

I received a couple of comments last time I posted an update – if you have any advice or feedback on how I can improve these, whether you are doing something similar or just noticed something I may have missed please feel free to comment and I’ll respond when I get chance!