Wednesday, 18 November 2015

Scottish Premiership - Assessing Under/Over Performance

Data is becoming more and more available in football and is now largely accessible to the average fan. However, as is clear to most people, not all data is useful.
Shot data is a prime example of this.
The standard way of recording shots on target or off target can often give a misleading view of what happened during a game, particularly if you haven’t seen the shots in question.
In StrataBet, we don’t just record shots on/off target. We record the quality of chances.
Rich Huggan did an excellent job of explaining that here, but to summarise:
  • “Great Chance” is a situation that a player would be expectedto score from.
  • “Good Chance” is a situation that a player could score from but would not necessarily be expected to.
  • An “Attempt” is a situation that a player would not be expectedto score from.
This is simple, but extremely effective.
Rich’s blog gave detail on the conversion rates of these chances. It showed a linear trend that provides an excellent basis to investigate which teams are over-performing or under-performing.
This season I have been working on the Scottish Premiership, so have taken the chance to look at which teams have been “good” and which have been “lucky”.

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